Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
The Greater Scaup differs from the Lesser Scaup in its rounder head, larger bill, and breeding habitat—it nests on large lakes in relatively open areas, overlapping with the northern edge of the Lesser Scaup’s range. The Audubon climate model shows a decrease in available summer climate space by 2080. However, over half of the currently available climate space in summer is predicted to be lost by 2050—a very rapid change that this species may not be able to adapt with. The winter prognosis is similar to that of many migratory waterfowl: a fairly substantial northward shift in range and more available areas with suitable climate.
68% of summer 2000 range is stable
26% decrease in summer 2080 from 2000 range
45% of winter 2000 range is stable
44% increase in winter 2080 from 2000 range
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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