The darker the color, the more favorable the climate conditions are for survival. The outlined areas represent approximate current range for each season. More on reading these maps.
This sleek duck of northeastern forest lakes and coastal marshes has suffered a long, persistent decline for over a century—largely owing to its close relative, the Mallard, which has spread into the Northeast following the clearing of forest, interbreeding with the American Black Duck and replacing it in many locations. Audubon's climate model shows a future for the species that at first glance doesn’t seem too bad, with areas of potentially suitable climate increasing slightly in the summer season and more so in winter. However, much of the potential new area opens up in the far west, where the Black Duck does not occur. It’s doubtful that the species would make that westward leap, especially if pressure from the Mallard continues, so prospects for this species may be worse than predicted.