Cassin's Auklet

casauk
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Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”

The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).

The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.

 

The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.

 

The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.

Climate Threatened

Cassin's Auklet

The darker the color, the more favorable the climate conditions are for survival. The outlined areas represent approximate current range for each season. More on reading these maps.

The darker the color, the more favorable the climate conditions are for survival. The outlined areas represent approximate current range for each season.

More on reading these maps.
Winter
Summer

Winter Range
Summer Range
Both Seasons
Zoom InOut
Focal Species
Flickr Creative Commons

This West Coast alcid is common, but generally seen well out at sea, and thus little known to most birders. Studies suggest its movements relate to changes in sea surface temperature, which can affect food availability. Research also suggests that short-term population fluctuations are connected to El Niño–La Niña phenomena. Audubon's climate model forecasts a substantial increase in the amount of climatically suitable areas for wintering birds, but only 17% of the current range remains stable. Unsurprisingly, much of this increase is predicted to be in the north. The key with the Cassin’s Auklet, and indeed with most if not all alcids, isn’t climate per se—these birds are hardy! Rather, it is whether their climatically sensitive prey will be able to adapt to and flourish in a changing climate, and whether the oceanic islands it needs for nesting will be in the new climate space.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.


Birds at Risk

Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.

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Northern Shoveler
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Ruffed Grouse
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Spotted Owl
Tundra Swan
White-throated Sparrow
Yellow-billed Magpie